Tsunamis: Planning for Low-Probability, Catastrophic Risks
Brian G. McAdoo is an associate professor of earth science at Vassar College. McAdoo came to Vassar in 1998 from the University of California, Santa Cruz where he completed his PhD entitled, Submarine Geomorphology of the Cascadia Accretionary Prism. He received a Diploma in Science from the University of Otago in Dunedin, New Zealand, working on mechanics and metamorphic petrology of the Alpine Fault. During his undergraduate at Duke, Brian worked closely with Orrin Pilkey and the Program for the Study of Developed Coastlines.
McAdoo's research on offshore landslides and tsunami hazard took a dramatic turn in December 2004 when the Indian Ocean tsunami occurred. As a member of the International Tsunami Survey Team, he traveled first to Sri Lanka and the Maldives, then to Indonesia to survey the tsunami's impact on the shoreline. Since that event, he has been invited on post-disaster surveys in Sumatra (2005), the US Gulf Coast following Hurricane Katrina (2005), central Java (2006), and led a team to the Solomon Islands in 2007. As a co-PI on an NSF grant which integrates civil engineering, earth science, coastal ecology and social science to address risks associated with offshore geohazards.
About the talk
The 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami triggered a literal sea change in the way tsunami risk assessments and mitigations are conducted. During this event, approximately 250,000 people were killed in a matter of hours. Scientists, engineers, and international aid agencies descended on the region in an unprecedented response to an unprecedented disaster. Millions of dollars flowed into the region with the aim of building back better, however the local capacities to deal with the influx was overwhelmed. Poor decisions were made that in some cases lead to wasted money, and in other cases, actual long term harm to the environment, leaving communities more vulnerable to future hazards.
The Tsunami Project aims to bring an interdisciplinary approach to post-disaster reconnaissance with the long-term goals of reducing the risk from these potentially catastrophic events that have a low probability of occurrence in a given time window. In the immediate aftermath of a disaster, International Tsunami Survey Teams consisting of civil engineers, natural and social scientists should work with local communities to determine the nature of the vulnerabilities of the stressed systems. The engineers determine the stresses that result from fluids interacting with structures. They will work with the geoscientists and coastal ecologists to see how the tsunami moves sediment and affects critical coastal ecosystems such as mangroves and coral reef. The geoscientists provide information on long-term tsunami recurrence intervals that these ecosystems have evolved to withstand. Furthermore, these critical ecosystems provide services that make coastal communities less susceptible to disasters, from physical buffers to food and fuel that can support an economy, therefore it is necessary to include social scientists to get a complete picture of coastal risk. A truly interdisciplinary approach is necessary to consider risk reduction measures for these low-probability, potentially catastrophic events.
